The first semi-final of the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest takes place Tuesday, May 8 in Lisbon, Portugal. Will we go 10-for-10 in our guesses for who will qualify? After much number-crunching, YouTube watching, head scratching, and on-air disagreements, we have finally compiled our data and made our prediction for which ten acts we think will advance out of the first semi-final of the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest. The 10 acts that we think will advance, presented in alphabetical order, are: Austria Azerbaijan Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Finland Greece Israel Let’s talk about our confidence levels, shall we? Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, and Israel landed in the top 10 across all metrics we use to compile our final prediction. We love them, the oddsmakers love them, and folks on YouTube love them. That’s full consensus in our mind. Austria, Bulgaria, and Finland are a little iffy, but we still feel pretty confident about those countries advancing. Austria’s rehearsal footage didn’t reveal much beyond a strong vocal, so we’re hoping there are some visual surprises in the broadcast to push the entry into qualifying. On the flipside, Finland has been improving in our scores since rehearsal footage came out, […]
This week we begin our analysis of the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest in earnest. First up: the first half of the first semi-final! Which entries are locks for advancing to the Grand Final? Who might get help from the running order?
Eurovision’s 2018 selection season is approaching the end, which means one thing: Sweden’s Melodifestivalen! Well, two things: lots of internal selections coming through the pipeline. No matter how you count it, we’re in the homestretch!
We’re podcasting, y’all! Welcome to the EuroWhat? In our opening episode of The EuroWhat? podcast, our Eurovision News and Entertainment Research Division Specialists introduce themselves to our listening audience before sharing their first impressions of Albania’s entry. Then the crew hopscotches around Europe (and Australia) to chat about the seven artists already announced from internal selections. Who do we like? Who are we concerned about? Will there be jazz? Listen below and share your thoughts in the comments! Intro 0:00 Who are you? What are you doing here? 3:02 Albania First Impressions 11:02 Internally Selected Artists 23:02 Australia Austria Azerbaijan Belgium Finland Georgia Netherlands Links Meet the Eurovision News and Entertainment Research Division Specialists Albania First Listen 2018 Calendar page [Read more…]
A new favorite has emerged, according to the bookkeepers. Two semi-finals and 36 performances later, we now know the 20 acts that will join the Big Five and host country Ukraine in Saturday’s Grand Final of the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest. Here is the full running order of Saturday’s show: Eurovision Song Contest 2017 Grand Final Running Order Country Artist Song 1 Israel IMRI I Feel Alive 2 Poland Kasia Moś Flashlight 3 Belarus NAVIBAND Historyja majho žyccia 4 Austria Nathan Trent Running on Air 5 Armenia Artsvik Fly With Me 6 Netherlands O’G3NE Lights and Shadows 7 Moldova SunStroke Project Hey Mamma 8 Hungary Joci Pápai Origo 9 Italy Francesco Gabbani Occidentali’s Karma 10 Denmark Anja Nissen Where I Am 11 Portugal Salvador Sobral Amar Pelos Dois 12 Azerbaijan Dihaj Skeletons 13 Croatia Jacques Houdek My Friend 14 Australia Isaiah Firebrace Don’t Come Easy 15 Greece Demy This is Love 16 Spain Manel Navarro Do It for Your Lover 17 Norway JOWST Grab the Moment 18 United Kingdom Lucie Jones I’ll Never Give Up on You 19 Cyprus Hovig Gravity 20 Romania Ilinca feat. Alex Florea Yodel It! 21 Germany Levina Perfect Life 22 Ukraine O.Torvald Time 23 Belgium […] [Read more…]
Will we go 10-for-10 in our guesses for who will qualify out of the first Eurovision semi-final? After much number-crunching, YouTube watching, head scratching, and consensus building, we have finally compiled our data and have made our prediction for which ten acts we think will advance out of the first semi-final of the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest. The 10 acts that we think will advance, presented in alphabetical order, are: Armenia Australia Azerbaijan Belgium Finland Greece Latvia Moldova Portugal Sweden Let’s talk about our confidence levels, shall we? Azerbaijan, Belgium, Portugal, and Sweden are the acts in which we are most confident, as they have all appeared in the top 10 of every single metric we have measured in this process. Armenia, Australia, Greece, and Moldova we also feel pretty confident about. Each had one metric that fell out of the top 10, but have otherwise strong records. Australia is the iffiest of the group, as Isaiah’s rehearsal footage was his low-scoring metric, which may indicate a slide in popularity. Moldova has been just making it into the top 10 of most rankings, though one of our gut predictions has “Hey Mamma” as 14th. The two acts that are gambles on […] [Read more…]
Croatia may be playing spoiler in the second semi-final, making this year’s Eurovision Song Contest that much more unpredictable. Sunday’s Eurovision Song Contest festivities in Kyiv included the second round of rehearsals for the Big Five and host country Ukraine, as well as the red carpet opening ceremony for this year’s competition. With 24 hours worth of data for the entire second semi-final field, let’s take a look at how the rankings of those videos may indicated popularity going into Thursday’s performances. Here are the top 10 videos from the second semi-final second rehearsals, as of 10:30pm CET / 4:30pm Eastern: Netherlands Serbia Croatia Bulgaria FYR Macedonia Denmark Belarus Romania Israel Austria Lithuania and Estonia dropped out of the top 10 from when we looked at the first rehearsal footage, and I fear this may be bad news for both countries. Lithuania sits in 13th and Estonia is in 15th, with at least 10,000 views behind Austria. In terms of the combined viewership for both rehearsals, here’s how the field shakes out: Netherlands FYR Macedonia Croatia Bulgaria Serbia Belarus Romania Lithuania Israel Denmark Croatia is poised to play spoiler based on earlier predictions. Hungary sits in 11th, trailing by fewer […] [Read more…]
It’s Belgium vs. Greece in the Eurovision First Semi-Final YouTube Rehearsal Race. The countries competing in the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest had their second and final rehearsal on stage in Kyiv, Ukraine Thursday and Friday. Now that a full day has passed since Latvia closed out the round, let’s take a look at the YouTube data to speculate on outcomes this Tuesday. First, it should be noted that Eurovision changed up how they presented the second rehearsal clips. Rather than a two-minute clip including staging and backstage moments, each performance was a 40-second snippet showing how the performance will look on TV during the show. It works as a teaser, as well as clearing up some concerns that may arise if there are weird camera angles from off-stage that wouldn’t be part of the actual presentation. Here is how the countries rank as of 22:35 Central European Time / 4:35pm Eastern: Belgium Greece Sweden Poland Portugal Azerbaijan Montenegro Armenia Iceland Australia That’s quite a changeup from what happened after the first rehearsal. Finland and Latvia have fallen out of the top 10, though they are both within striking distance of Australia. Belgium is solidly in first place, […] [Read more…]
If YouTube provides a clue as to who will qualify from the first Eurovision Song Contest semi-final, there could be some major surprises in store. Rehearsals for the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest kicked off Sunday, with the first half of the first semi-final taking the stage in Kyiv. On Monday, the second half of the first semi-final got their turn on the stage in the International Exhibition Centre. As has been customary for the last several years, Eurovision has released teaser snippets of each rehearsal, giving home viewers a glimpse into what is in store for next week’s competition. You know what that also means? MORE DATA TO SPECULATE UPON! We have been tracking the viewership of these snippets and have discovered some surprises that may reveal some potential shakeups to previous expectations for this year’s Contest. As of this writing1, here are the Top 10 first rehearsal videos from the first semi-final: Greece Belgium Finland Poland Montenegro Portugal Sweden Azerbaijan Iceland Latvia There are quite a few countries on that list that haven’t been part of the conversation this season, including Greece, Finland, Poland, and Iceland. Noticeably absent from the list are Armenia (11th) and Australia (13th). It’s possible that […] [Read more…]
Sixteen countries competed in Tuesday’s semi-final of the 2015 Eurovision Song Contest. Which ones will continue to party in Saturday’s Grand Final?