Like it or not, one of the six remaining castaways on Survivor San Juan Del Zzzzz will be getting a check for a million dollars in a couple weeks. Here’s how we think things will play out.
The remaining players on Survivor San Juan Del Zzzzz are dating couple Jon and Jaclyn, mother/daughter combo Missy and Baylor, resident elder (and possible challenge monster) Keith, and twinless twinnie Natalie. Like it or not, one of these people will be the winner of this game and get rewarded with a million dollars. Let’s talk about their chances.
Baylor is the youngest cast member this season and the one who has had a target on her back the longest, scoring votes from the original Coyopa tribe since the first Tribal Council. She managed to stay scrappy in the game by being flexible and lining up with the right people at the right time, but she has had few moments to point to as strong gameplay moments. Most of the people on the jury seem to dislike Baylor on a personal level, which makes it difficult to imagine a scenario where she can win. She’ll probably get invited back to play again, so she has that going for her.
A season like this is a waste of a player like Jaclyn. She has strong instincts, is competent at challenges, and knows how to read a room. Unfortunately, her biggest liabilities are Survivor‘s sexist tropes and having Jon as an anchor around her neck. There was a huge missed opportunity in the most recent episode to get Jaclyn out. Natalie should have worked with Alec and Keith to blow up the game and vote for her, which would have either a) flushed out an idol, or b) emotionally destroy Jon for the rest of the game. Instead, she will probably get to the final three, but her association with Jon will cause her to be unfairly punished.
Ugh, this guy. When he’s not sharing the medical history of loved ones or shmooping about the beach following Jaclyn like a puppy dog, Jon demonstrates a total lack of sound Survivor strategy. In a normal season, Jon would be an attractive final three option as someone who coasted rather than played. However, with this season chockful of reward sharing and Montessori gameplay, Jon stands a good chance of winning this whole thing. A perfectly beige winner for a beige season.
I’m kind of amazed that Keith made it this far. He is terrible at Tribal Council by not knowing what to say (almost nothing) and when to say it (almost never). He has no social game, which in itself is an interesting social game strategy. However, despite this ineptness, it would be foolish to bring him to the final three considering who all is on the jury (read: all his former alliance-mates). Keith has proven himself to be good at challenges of varying types, which could allow him to sneak to the end. I’m not sure if that would be satisfying or infuriating.
Well, if the “Next Time on Survivor” from the most recent episode isn’t a diversion, there’s a good chance Missy could be medevac’d. If she manages to hang on, she could find herself in the final three. Presumably the couples will work together to get to the final four. There would most certainly be a tie in that vote, and I think Baylor would volunteer as tribute in the fire-building challenge. If Jon and Jaclyn goes to the final three, Missy stands to do well with a jury who will not want to vote for them.
At this point, Natalie should win this season of Survivor. She has gone the whole season unencumbered by the Blood vs. Water twist since her sister got the boot in the first episode. Natalie is the only one exhibiting any sort of gameplay and is willing to cause a ruckus if necessary. She has an idol, which should allow her to get to the final four. The difficulty is in who makes up the other three. If Missy and Baylor are still around, Natalie may walk away with the win. If Jon and Jaclyn are still around, then there’s either a tie-breaker situation or Natalie turns on Missy/Baylor because she could win against Jon and Jaclyn. Even with an idol safety net, Natalie has a tough high wire act to navigate to get to the end of the game.